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What are my odds?

(4 posts)
  1. falc

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    Posted 3 years ago
    Thu Apr 17 2014 3:37:08
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    Greetings.

    Recently, I moved from one place to another. My old place was infested with bed bugs, and unfortunately I brought at least one back with me.

    Within 5 days of being there, I discovered a bedbug on my bed. It hadn't fed yet, but I recall having a bite. It was disposed of, all sheets washed, and bed bug spray was ordered. I sprayed the bed, heated the bedding, time goes on.

    A week goes by, see another, hasn't eaten yet, I don't have a bite.

    About a week later I get sick, and I also get a bug bite. A day or two later I discover another bed bug. Spray is done again. From this point on, I don't get bitten again.

    But a few days later, like clockwork, another appears. At this one, I go a bit crazy. I lock down the room, get a flashlight, and dig through every nook and crevice of the room, uprooting everything in my search. I find the nest inside of the headboard. I kill every single bedbug there and spray it totally, including a small section of nymph eggs and young ones. In total 8 die.
    I also spray every surface of the room completely and have all the bedding washed. The bed is completely upturned and examined, nothing is there.

    At this point, I am now nocturnal and searching the room totally from 8 pm to 5 am and sleeping in an entirely separate room (after checking cloathing).

    I only see two more for the remaining week, two young ones climbing walls away from the headboard either trying to escape the room or drop down on the bed from above. They're dealt with immediately. It has now been 4 concurrent days of seeing no bed bugs. No bites have occurred for two weeks.

    I don't know very much about bedbugs beyond my research, but I do know enough about how populations are formed and have done a lengthy research on bedbug lifecycles recently.

    Correct me if I'm wrong but:
    Adult Female bedbugs will, with a blood meal, drop 1-3 eggs per day up to a week, where they need to feed again.
    This means, if both bites were to her, AND she was already pregnant, I have a total of 14-42 bugs to deal with.
    It takes a month or more for a bedbug to reach maturity, each one requiring a blood meal.
    I have only seen two adults, which means that with two bites there are a lot of stage 1 and 2 I am killing, and if the pictures sync up with memory that seems to fit.

    So, given that I know exactly when the bed bugs began here, I can estimate that there should only be two adults total, given the blood meals. So there shouldn't be more then one nest.
    Moreover, if there were a second nest I would have seen many more bed bugs come out since the spray, since they would become hungry and seek it out. If it was in another room, someone else would be biten or report seeing one. Nobody has reported any bites, to reiterate.

    Additionally, since for the past week I've searched every nook and cranny of the room periodically (once every 1-2 hours at night), I can make two assumptions: The remaining ones are in long hiding away from where I search (yet somehow alive from every surface being toxic to them), or they have left the room/died.

    Given the assumed sexual immaturity of the remaining bedbugs (if any), does that mean that for better or worse the infestation has more or less died and with a little bit more carefulness on everyone involved that's the end of it?

    Like I said earlier, I don't know much about bedbugs, but I have done minor research on population dynamics in school and understand exactly how devastating an early population wipe can be, especially when very few of the population are capable of breeding and growth is (relatively) slow. Especially since these are not pre-existing bedbugs, but imported, so it can be assumed there were no prior bugs beyond the first one (or two) one month ago, ergo the population started from scratch.

    What I'm really getting at is, what are the odds that I've managed to nip this in the bud, mostly? Between early sheet wipes and spraying to the recent approach of dismantling everything and searching. With two adults down and 4 days since the last sighting of any, with no bites being reported for the past two weeks and a grand total of two bites ever reported? If my math isn't wrong, there should be a few left that will search out for food and expose themselves soon. But without any eggs being laid it is a matter of time, patience, and vigilance before it is over.

  2. P Bello

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    Posted 3 years ago
    Thu Apr 17 2014 8:16:12
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    Responses (R:) to your Questions (Q:) posted below:

    Greetings.

    Q: Recently, I moved from one place to another. My old place was infested with bed bugs, and unfortunately I brought at least one back with me.

    Within 5 days of being there, I discovered a bedbug on my bed. It hadn't fed yet, but I recall having a bite. It was disposed of, all sheets washed, and bed bug spray was ordered. I sprayed the bed, heated the bedding, time goes on.

    A week goes by, see another, hasn't eaten yet, I don't have a bite.

    About a week later I get sick, and I also get a bug bite. A day or two later I discover another bed bug. Spray is done again. From this point on, I don't get bitten again.

    R: OK, that suxdotcom, sorry.

    Q: But a few days later, like clockwork, another appears. At this one, I go a bit crazy. I lock down the room, get a flashlight, and dig through every nook and crevice of the room, uprooting everything in my search. I find the nest inside of the headboard. I kill every single bedbug there and spray it totally, including a small section of nymph eggs and young ones. In total 8 die.
    I also spray every surface of the room completely and have all the bedding washed. The bed is completely upturned and examined, nothing is there.

    R: OK, this is good.

    Q: At this point, I am now nocturnal and searching the room totally from 8 pm to 5 am and sleeping in an entirely separate room (after checking cloathing).

    I only see two more for the remaining week, two young ones climbing walls away from the headboard either trying to escape the room or drop down on the bed from above. They're dealt with immediately. It has now been 4 concurrent days of seeing no bed bugs. No bites have occurred for two weeks.

    R: OK, good again.

    Q: I don't know very much about bedbugs beyond my research, but I do know enough about how populations are formed and have done a lengthy research on bedbug lifecycles recently.

    R: Well, thus far you've demonstrated that you know enough to recognize them, search for them and kill them so, you're likely well beyond the average bed bug new victim which is good yet again.

    Correct me if I'm wrong but:
    Q: Adult Female bedbugs will, with a blood meal, drop 1-3 eggs per day up to a week, where they need to feed again.

    R: Not so much. Recent research indicates that female bed bugs can deposit up to about 18 eggs per day. After a single mating they are sufficiently supplied from the male to produce about 90 viable eggs and will need to mate again to produce more after that. Current research is nearly completed on the average number of eggs per blood meal per female.

    Q: This means, if both bites were to her, AND she was already pregnant, I have a total of 14-42 bugs to deal with.

    R: We can't be sure based upon the information provided thus far as there are many variables which cannot be determined. While it is unwise to simply "guess" here, it's likely better to be conservative due to the downside risk.

    Q: It takes a month or more for a bedbug to reach maturity, each one requiring a blood meal.
    I have only seen two adults, which means that with two bites there are a lot of stage 1 and 2 I am killing, and if the pictures sync up with memory that seems to fit.

    R: In many pest infestations the immature usually out number the adults simply due to the fact that they produce numerous off spring. We see this in cockroach infestations "all the time".

    Q: So, given that I know exactly when the bed bugs began here, I can estimate that there should only be two adults total, given the blood meals. So there shouldn't be more then one nest.

    R: 1) We cannot be certain of ". . . I know exactly . . . because it is possible that there were bed bugs there previously and it is also possible that more bed bugs were carried in than you thought/think. Simply stated, you could have missed some. 2) Bed bugs aggregate or co-mingle in harborages and do not truly "nest".

    Q: Moreover, if there were a second nest I would have seen many more bed bugs come out since the spray, since they would become hungry and seek it out. If it was in another room, someone else would be biten or report seeing one. Nobody has reported any bites, to reiterate.

    R: Not so much. it is possible that you may have missed or overlooked a harborage area.

    Q: Additionally, since for the past week I've searched every nook and cranny of the room periodically (once every 1-2 hours at night), I can make two assumptions: The remaining ones are in long hiding away from where I search (yet somehow alive from every surface being toxic to them), or they have left the room/died.

    R: You're likely searching/inspecting too often. Use some monitor devices to help reduce the work load. Be sure you're inspecting thoroughly, it sounds as if you are which is good. Are you checking all utility penetrations? Base board moldings? Carpet tack strip? Box spring framing? ther such places?

    Q: Given the assumed sexual immaturity of the remaining bedbugs (if any), does that mean that for better or worse the infestation has more or less died and with a little bit more carefulness on everyone involved that's the end of it?

    R: Not so much. You need to maintain your vigilance until such time that you see know activity for a suitable period of time. Are you removing fecal stains such that you can detect new ones ?

    Q: Like I said earlier, I don't know much about bedbugs, but I have done minor research on population dynamics in school and understand exactly how devastating an early population wipe can be, especially when very few of the population are capable of breeding and growth is (relatively) slow. Especially since these are not pre-existing bedbugs, but imported, so it can be assumed there were no prior bugs beyond the first one (or two) one month ago, ergo the population started from scratch.

    R: Actually, you're doing a darn good job so far. Keep up the good work !

    Q: What I'm really getting at is, what are the odds that I've managed to nip this in the bud, mostly? Between early sheet wipes and spraying to the recent approach of dismantling everything and searching. With two adults down and 4 days since the last sighting of any, with no bites being reported for the past two weeks and a grand total of two bites ever reported? If my math isn't wrong, there should be a few left that will search out for food and expose themselves soon. But without any eggs being laid it is a matter of time, patience, and vigilance before it is over.

    R: I'm not sure if "your math" is wrong or not. However, you're doing math based upon assumptions which can be wrong so, there's that . . .

    As stated previously, keep up the good work, you can beat this thing ! ! !

    Good luck, pjb

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  3. BigDummy

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    Posted 3 years ago
    Thu Apr 17 2014 8:19:28
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    You're assuming a lot here. You also seem to be killing a fair amount as well. Maybe the bed isn't the only harborage as you've recently moved from a heavily infested area.

    HVAC/Locksmith/Bed Bug Control for a non-profit homeless shelter and long term veteran housing.
  4. falc2

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    Posted 3 years ago
    Thu Apr 17 2014 18:02:40
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    Hey guys, thanks for the responses. I ended up forgetting to change to a new password so when I deleted the email I lost the account other one.

    R: 1) We cannot be certain of ". . . I know exactly . . . because it is possible that there were bed bugs there previously and it is also possible that more bed bugs were carried in than you thought/think.

    I absolutely know for certain that there were none before I arrived, as I am currently living with others who were there prior, though I could have brought more then I think, yes.

    R: You're likely searching/inspecting too often. Use some monitor devices to help reduce the work load. Be sure you're inspecting thoroughly, it sounds as if you are which is good. Are you checking all utility penetrations? Base board moldings? Carpet tack strip? Box spring framing? ther such places?

    Yes, I never see anything though. Not even any droppings, which is a sign that they're active in that particular location. Which brings me to this:

    R: Not so much. You need to maintain your vigilance until such time that you see no activity for a suitable period of time. Are you removing fecal stains such that you can detect new ones ?

    That's something that bothers me: Nothing in the room is stained outside of one section of headboard. Everything is clean, and I have thoroughly searched every nook and cranny, upturned furniture, desks, looked under, went under the bed, flipped the boxspring, etc in search of them/more areas. I'm not wrong in assuming that they'll only create these secretions after a blood meal, correct? Which would mean no droppings = either a large cluster elsewhere, or no food to drop. After the headboard was hit with spray, and the rest of the room with it, I never saw a bug even near the bed/headboard. The other two were on the walls to the side and behind the bed. One seemed to be ill or spastic, as it seemed to have trouble climbing and its limbs were twitching as it tried to get higher. I don't know if that's the spray or hunger working.

    -Maybe the bed isn't the only harborage as you've recently moved from a heavily infested area.

    Maybe. I'll keep looking. Two escaped the headboard so they did go somewhere (or were already gone from there before it happened), but I can't imagine it's very large.

    My biggest concern is that there are a lot that I don't know about (unlikely, but worst case scenario) that are going to leave for another room. They have a hell of a gauntlet to make to do that (my room is off in a corner of a wide house, they'd have to avoid a lot of spiders in the woodwork that wikipedia says prey on bedbugs to do so) but I suppose that's just a wait-and-see sort of thing.

    I'm certainly not trying to starve them, though. I'm on the bed every night, sitting in a chair with my legs up on the bed exposed in full view. I'm open and waiting if they get hungry and want to go for it, so I don't know the odds of them migrating with me still in the room, but its a worry.


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